(12-20-25) NFL magic mike is back!
1. Battle of the NFC North! 9-4-1 Green Bay at 10-4 Chicago
(-1.5).
“Bet the Favs early and the Dogs late.” This is one of those
games. Line opened at Packers -3 and has swung 4.5
points to Bears -1.5 at home.
Bears are 1-0 ATS as home dogs and the Packers are 1-5
ATS as away favorites, but their 4-2 straight up on the road.
Bears are 5-1 at home straight up. Packers won in week 14
against the Bears, 28-21 at Lambeau.
But in the second half of the week 14 matchup, the Bears
put up 244 total yards, 18 points, and they reached the red
zone on all four drives. Fast forward to Week 16, the Green
Bay Packers are now without Micah Parsons, Evan
Williams, Zach Tom, and Christian Watson. Injuries are one
thing, but the Packers are now without their two best
defenders (Parsons and Williams) and their three most
important players on offense (Watson, Tom, and Tucker
Kraft) outside of Jordan Love. There’s far too much to
overcome, and with what Chicago found in the second half,
they may take full control of the NFC North and clinch a
spot in the playoffs.
The weather will be around 40 degrees so there will be no
real impact on the game. Both teams can play in pretty
much any environment. This will be the 266th time these
teams have played. It should be a lot of fun!
ML is -125 on the Bears and a great bet if you think it will be
a close one. We believe the Bears will cover by a FG in this
one, so we are laying -1.5 on the Bears at home to cover!
Bears 23-20
2. 9-5 Eagles at the 4-10 Commanders. NFC East battle. 91%
of the Sharps are taking the Eagles at -6.5. 90% of the
Sharps like the under 44.5 in this one. Game will be played
tomorrow at 5:00PM EST at Northwest Stadium on Fox and
NFL+. The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win.
Eagles are 3-3 ATS as away Favs and Commanders are 1-2
ATS as home dogs. Washington is allowing 396 yards and
over 30 points per game and I don’t see that changing on
Saturday.
Eagles are 8-6 their last 14 games ATS. Commanders are 0-
2 ATS when a 6.5 point dog or more. I expect to see a
similar game to the one we saw last week for the Eagles
beating the Raiders 31-0. They should come out hot and
pile on the points in this one.
The Commanders have struggled mightily this season,
limping to a 4-10 record with quarterback Jayden Daniels in
and out of the lineup. He's done for the season, meaning the
Eagles will face veteran Marcus Mariota (passing total for
this game: 208.5 yards) this weekend. Mariota is 2-5 as a
starter this season, only winning starts against the Las
Vegas Raiders and New York Giants. The Raiders and
Giants have a combined four wins. Washington's average
margin of defeat in its losses with Mariota is 10.8 points,
nearly double the 5.5-point spread for this game.
Disregarding whether Mariota or Daniels has started, the
Commanders are 0-4 in their last four home games. They're
1-3 ATS in that span, only covering in their overtime loss to
the Denver Broncos.
Philadelphia's defense, led by Jordan Davis, Zack Baun, and
Quinyon Mitchell, should be an important part of the game,
too. The Eagles are allowing the sixth-fewest points per
game (19.4), and they rank just outside the top 10 in team
sacks with 35, which ranks 11th in the NFL. For
comparison's sake, the Commanders are conceding 26.8
PPG, and they have 31 team sacks, ranking 26th and tied for
16th, respectively.!
Eagles 31-10 over the Commanders on Saturday! Easy
cover for the defending champs!
3. Sunday we’ve got the 10-4 Jags at 12-2 Broncos (-3.5):
2:05PM Mile High Time on NFL+, Fox and Fubo. Broncos
are 2-3 ATS as a home favorite and #20 out of 32 teams in
general ATS. They are very much like the Chiefs of last year
who went to the Super Bowl but only covered ATS at 41%
all season and post season. Broncos beat the Packers last
week and they’ve won 11 in a row. Jags are 10-4 and
brimming with confidence but are also 1-1 ATS as away
dogs.
This feels like an up-down game for the Broncos, who play
the Chiefs next week, but Mile High is extremely difficult to
play at which helps Denver. One would assume they’re
going to lose at some point, but they just continue finding
ways to win. And they win in different ways, albeit just not
ATS at 6-7-1. Last week, Bo Nix had arguably the best game
of his career and Denver has the #1 defense in the league,
rivaling the Texans. 85% of the Sharps are taking the
Broncos at home in this one.
Denver’s D ranks #3 in points allowed, #3 in total yards, #1
in sacks (58) and pressure rate. #1 in stopping on 3rd
downs and #1 in red zone stops.
Jacksonville is 4-2 on the road straight up and riding a 5-
game winning streak.
Notable wins for Jags include the Texans in week 3, the
Niners, the Chiefs, the Chargers, the Colts. Notable losses
include the Texans in week 10, the Seahawks and the Rams.
Three of the hottest teams in the league, with exception of
the Broncos.
defense overall
I will say the Jags have a stingy defense but so did the
Packers and Nix had 4 TDs.
Lay the points -3.5: Broncos 31-17 in this one.
4. One more game I handicapped is the 10-4 Niners at the 8-6
Colts who have lost four straight. Niners are 6 point
favorites on the road where they are 6-2 straight up and 5-0
ATS as away favorites.
Niners play well and cover better on the road vs. home for
whatever reason. The Niners have won 4 straight, and the
Colts have lost 4 straight. With Daniel Jones out for the
season, they will start Phillip Rivers once again. Despite
the age, despite having 10 kids, despite the lack of mobility,
the Colts have a legit shot here based on one thing and one
thing alone: Rivers’ leadership and drive, and the team
rallying behind him. The Colts despite all of this, lost on a
last second missed field goal to the Seahawks 18-16.
So, this game has a feel for an up-down game for the
Niners!
I will tell you that the Sharps are betting the over 46.5 at
80%. They are mixed on the game.
Seahawks were 14.5 underdogs last week and almost beat
the Seahawks! This line was -3.5 before Jones went down
and now 6!
I think McCaffrey has another big game. Niners on the road
27-17.
5. Raiders at the Texans: No need for a lot here. Texans -14.5
at home and I will take the over in this one at 37.5.
GOOD HUNTING