9/5/25 NFL Picks Here we go! (We were 5-1 Pre-Season)
1. Chargers & Chiefs take + 3 on Chargers
This will go down in history as one of the most competitive games of the year! I am a fan of what Harbaugh did in his first year, taking his squad to 11-6. He changed the culture; changed the losing; changed the run game and changed Justin Herbert to a degree. Chargers are a very good team, who might be a sleeper team to win it all this year.
Last year, the Chiefs won most of their games by 3 points or less! They went 15-2 but covered ATS at 42.5%!
Chargers are just the better team top to bottom with exception to Andy Reid and Patrick MaHomes! BUT Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh are nothing to turn your head about.
So, what is the read here: Chargers +3.5 at -110 or Chargers ML at +120, down from +145, so the betting public is betting the Chiefs. Chargers +3.5 against the Chiefs on a neutral field!
Chargers in the upset as the dog on the road. 24-21.
#2: Bengals at Browns , Lay -5.5 on Bengals
The battle of Ohio begins with the Bengals and the Browns. Joe Burrow has not started the season healthy since his rookie year and in the past 6 years, Bengals have gone 1-11 their first 2 games to start the year. I expect that trend to stop and Joe Burrow to have a monster game with a healthy Tee Higgins back. Bengal’s running game is the ideal balance to Burrow’s excellent passing attack.
Chase Brown is the clear back I like his chances to get more than one TD in this one. Of course, the Bengals will have to contend with Myles Garret. But I think the run game opening the pass game will be too much for Cleveland.
At the end of the day, the Browns are just outmatched.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgens combined for a total contract of $276MM. They both will be prepared and will be looking to prove they are worth the money.
Ja’Marr went for 1,708 receiving yards, 127 receiving catches and 17 TD last year – THE TRIFECTA!. And Higgens posted a career high 10 TDs last year.
In terms of prop bets, I really like combining these two into a parlay.
Ja’Marr Chase over 83.5 receiving yards and Tee Higgens over 60.5 receiving yards. I have Ja’Marr at 91 yards on the day and Tee at 68 yards on the day. Against the Browns D, which was #19 last year and has fallen all the way to #26, I see Ja’Marr and Tee covering their props.
Ja’Marr’s pick is -114 and Tee’s pick is -110.
Combined, they are +258.38, so $100 pays $258.38 plus you get your bet back, so you get back a total of $358.38.
For the game, I see this at somewhere in the vicinity of 31-17 Bengals covering -5.5 easily. Also, the line opened at -6, so the -5.5 is very attractive.
the line opened at -6, so the -5.5 is very attractive.
#3: Titans at Broncos Lay -7.5 on Broncos
Mile High Stadium is one of the hardest places to play in, especially early in the season as teams won’t be used to the lack of oxygen. Bo Nix will clearly have the experience factor over Cam Ward. Bronco’s D, which I have as #1, leading the league in sacks at 39.57 last year!
With the Broncos defense, led by Pat Surtain II and a pretty ferocious pass rush, they should be able to frustrate and limit Ward during his NFL debut.
I hate big spreads in the early part of the season, but Mile High, Bo Nix, Broncos’ Defense, Pat Surtain II, Sean Payton all point to a BIG win for the Broncos and their Defense!
A lot of experts have the Broncos winning but not covering with predictions like 24-17; 27-20 and I just don’t see it. That would make me too reasonable to agree with that!
Broncos are just too dominant on defense and despite Titan’s revamped offensive line, Denver will be too strong for Cam Ward and the offense. Denver frustrates and Tennessee runs out of air in this one!
Denver cruises 34-13! Very similar prediction to the Bengals game!
#4: Bucs at Falcons: Lay -2.5 on Bucs
The Atlanta Falcons struggled mightily to get to the quarterback a season ago, ranking among the worst in the league in just about every metric.
Absent Leonard Floyd, but essentially brought the same young group as last year hoping for a better result. But hope is not a strategy!
That’s going to make their life pretty difficult against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team which finished on a high note, taking the NFC South behind a menacing offense.
Their offensive line looks like one of the best in football with Tristan Wirfs continuing to ascend into stardom, and Baker Mayfield is also coming off an excellent season, looking like an MVP candidate.
With Bucky Irving making huge gains in the backfield, too, this is a very balanced offense which shouldn’t be bothered much by a flat Falcons defense.
I expect the Buccaneers to come into this season firing on all cylinders, while the Falcons will get off to a false start. Lay the points with Tampa Bay.
Tampa on the road and I like the under 47.5, but passing!
I got the Bucs in this one 28-20!
#5: Giants at Commanders Lay -6 on Commanders
I like this game for a lot of reasons. I see the Giants Defense as improving and they could give Jayden Daniels a run for his money. LISTEN, The Commanders are just better! G-men’s offense line is a mess and I see Von Miller having a great day and disrupting the offence of New York! Couple that with Deebo Samuel and I see the Commander clicking on all cylinders to start the 2025 NFL season.
The over/under is set at 45.5 but I am not a fan on this one. Divisional games are often tight and tend to lean under but with Jayden Daniels anything is possible. But Commanders will win, but will they cover -5.5?
As for prop bets, I like Austin Ekeler, anytime TD for the Commanders! Duel threat that can score on a catch or a run, so that is why I like this prop at +235! He is less of a focus in terms of catches but his duel threat ability and his running make him very dangerous. Factor in Deebo Samuel and the other receiving core and this is a lay-up as a prop-bet!
Russell Wilson will look to do his “old” thing but based on the line, I see Brian Daboll, the G-Men’s coach playing the running game and trying to run out the clock. If Russell gets in trouble, I see Jaxson Dart coming in and that might change the projection of the game, but I still like the Commanders!
30-21 Commanders at home!
Good Hunting